No Effect from "Red Flag"
Law in California: JAMA Study

By Dean Weingarten. Jun 9, 2022

On April 5, 2022, the JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) Network Open published a study attempting to find a reduction in firearms fatal and non-fatal injuries associated with the very aggressive implementation of a "Red Flag" law, also known as a gun violence restraining order or GVRO, in San Diego County, California.

The results surprised and appear to have shocked them. No statistical association existed, although the data was the most comprehensive to date, and the study was designed to find such an association.

No such association existed.

The study was funded by various contributions from philanthropic and government sources. Dr. Garen Wintemute is the most well-known of the authors. It appears most of the analysis was done by Dr. Veronica A. Pear.

Author Contributions: Dr Pear had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

It is clear the authors expected to find a statistically significant drop in fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries, both from assault and self-harm. If there were an association, this study had the best chance to find it. From the abstract:

•   Key Points

•   Question

•   Has implementation of the gun violence restraining order law, beginning in 2016, been associated with a reduction in firearm assault or firearm self-harm in San Diego County, California?

•   Findings

•   In this cross-sectional study, the gun violence restraining order law was not significantly associated with a reduction in firearm violence of any kind during its first 4 years of implementation, 2016 to 2019.

•   Meaning

•   These results suggest that gun violence restraining order implementation did not reduce population-level rates of firearm violence in San Diego County, but future studies should investigate whether there were individual-level benefits to those directly affected.

This correspondent applauds Dr. Pear and her associates for publishing this null result. It shows integrity on their part. .....